What Would a Bernie Sanders Presidency Actually Look Like?

Photo by Vidar Nordli-Mathisen on Unsplash

The short answer: A lot like a Biden Presidency.

To the disappointment of both the Bernie Fanboys (dreaming of whisking us off to a most-of-the-developed-world-style fairyland of universal healthcare and debt-free college) and the Bernie Fearmongers (peddling depictions of a Maoist regime with breadlines, Bible burning, and the end of private property), the reality is much more mundane: The systemic reforms Sanders is running on have almost no chance of being enacted by Congress, at least not yet.

That’s not a criticism of Sanders for pushing major reforms. Changing public attitudes on major societal issues starts with big ideas. But as much time as we’re spending on the rhetoric, we might as well spend a little time on what might actually be enacted after January 20, 2021.

Here’s how I see it playing out.

Congressional Obstacles to Major Reforms

Before even considering the hyperambitious policies pushed by Sanders (Medicare For All, student loan forgiveness, the Green New Deal, massive tax reforms) any hope of a Democratic president passing anything at all first hinges on the Democrats winning back the Senate and holding the House.

While there is a decent likelihood the Democrats hold the House, taking the Senate is a much steeper climb. The Democrats would need to (1) hold all of their 47 current Senate seats, including in deep-red Alabama, and (2) oust three additional Republicans, just to reach 50 seats. The two most likely Republican losses are in Colorado and Maine, both states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. The next most likely is increasingly blue Arizona. But due to the slim chance of holding Alabama, taking the Senate would almost certainly require a jaw-dropper of a win in somewhere like Texas(!) or Georgia. All this is certainly possible, but far from probable — and, again, that’s just to obtain the slimmest possible majority.

However, the steep Senate odds aren’t the main obstacle. Even in a Democratic Senate, most legislation would require a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority (which has no chance of existing) to defeat Republican opposition. But even if the filibuster were eliminated (unlikely) or if bills were pushed through under the 51-vote reconciliation process (of questionable applicability to Bernie’s big reforms), that still would not remove the main obstacle: The Democratic votes simply won’t be there in either chamber to push through divisive legislation, much less the sweeping reforms Sanders has proposed.

Even ignoring the fact that most Democratic representatives oppose Medicare For All (only about 1/6 of the 435 House members support a variant of MFA) and the more extreme Sanders reforms, we don’t have to look far beyond the passage of Obamacare to predict resistance in the Democratic caucus.

A decade ago, despite a House majority and a filibuster-proof Senate, squeamish Democrats stripped the most progressive features from the ACA — items that pale in comparison to the system-wide reset of healthcare Medicare For All would trigger. Specifically, the so-called “public option” and the proposed Medicare buy-in for people age 55 to 64, were scrapped — not so much to attract Republican votes, but to appease Democratic fears. And the fears were justified. In the backlash to the passage of the ACA, 63 House Democrats and six Senators lost their seats in a Republican wave election in 2010.

So however pliable Democrats in the next Congress might be on these issues if Sanders wins, they’ll remember the post-Obamacare GOP romp in the midterms when they’re asked to support mammoth reforms that make the ACA look trivial by comparison.

Bottom line: If you’re asking “What Legislation could Sanders pass,” you’re really asking, “What will the Democratic Senator from West Virginia — who’s way further to the right than Joe Biden — vote for?”

What Congress Might Actually Pass Under Sanders.

In that context, here’s what Sanders might be able to get passed, if he has a Democratic Congress. (This list is just my non-exhaustive best guess in no particular order.)

• Minimum Wage Increase: If Sanders is elected, you can bet on an increase the $7.25 federal minimum wage. The current Democratic controlled House passed the Raise the Wage Act, phasing in an increase from $7.25 to $15.00 per hour, with bipartisan support — though it was quickly killed in the GOP-held Senate. A Sanders presidency with a blue Senate would mean a significant minimum wage increase, and it would probably notch several GOP votes along the way.
• Prescription Drug Costs and Surprise Billing: For more relatively low-hanging fruit, there is broad public support for reforms to cap or otherwise reduce the price of prescription drugs and surprise medical billing. Both subjects have been on-again-off-again in the current administration. A Sanders presidency puts this in the fast lane.
• Public Option? Age 55 Medicare Buy-in?: While I would label these as “plausible” instead of “probable,” if Sanders wins, it will be hard not to see it as a mandate for reforms in his primary area of focus: Expanding health coverage. Thus, it’s not crazy to envision these big expansions to the current healthcare system. But, don’t underestimate the Obamacare-level rallying to the troops in Congress is would take to get these passed. It could happen, but it wouldn’t be easy by any means. (By the way, these just-might-get-there-with-a-ton-of-luck reforms are now standard positions for the “moderate” Democratic primary candidates, including Biden and Klobuchar.)
• Environmental Reforms / Climate Change Action: Though it’s easy to envision legislative activity on climate issues under Sanders (i.e. increased funding for green technology, etc.), we’re more likely to see most of the environmental reforms happen through executive orders, rather than legislation.
• Criminal Justice Reform: In 2019, the bipartisan First Step Act was enacted, mandating various reforms in federal sentencing for certain drug crimes and other related items. Because the final bill was substantially pared down to attract GOP votes and Trump’s signature (it only applies to about 10% of federal inmates), it’s easy to envision Sanders signing an additional reform bill that expands reforms to other inmates and offenses. For example, while federal legalization of marijuana (as Sanders and other candidates have proposed) may be a legislative stretch, it’s conceivable to see further softening of sentencing laws.
• Student Loan Reform: Because Congress would have to sign off on the expansive plans to cancel student loan debt touted by Sanders and Warren, these plans don’t have a realistic chance to become law any time soon. With that said, we’ll likely see a push for something in this area, on par with expanded income-based relief programs, debt collection reforms, and at least partially opening up avenues for debt dischargeability in bankruptcy. This bill that passed the House last year is a roadmap for reforms that could plausibly become law in the next four years.
• TAX THE RICH!: Let’s just get this one out of the way. A wealth tax doesn’t have a chance. Anything that includes a 50% plus marginal rate doesn’t have a chance. While it’s conceivable that something on par with a payroll tax change or a reinstatement of the full SALT deduction could make it out of Congress (and maybe even some loophole trimming to offset cuts), the monumental tax reforms Bernie is running on are a nonstarter.

By contrast, here’s what Sanders might be able to get passed if Democrats don’t retake the Senate:

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Executive Action under Sanders.

Of course, the president can still make significant policy decisions without Congress. Therefore, you could expect the most progressive policies under Sanders to occur through executive orders and appointments. However, like the list of possible legislative enactments, the majority of the executive actions we’d see under a Sanders presidency (with some exceptions) aren’t too different from what the other candidates are promising:

• Limit prosecution of federal marijuana offenses: As part of his criminal justice reform proposals, the president can direct the justice department to effectively suspend enforcement on these offenses. All of the remaining Democratic candidates, (except Bloomberg) have a reasonably similar plans to effectively decriminalize marijuana at the federal level.
• Reinstate DACA: This is a guarantee under all of the current Democratic candidates.
• Reverse Trump’s cap on refugees: Also a guarantee under all of the current Democratic candidates.
• Reverse the “Muslim Ban”: Same.
• Reverse Trump’s removal of LGBT discrimination protections: Same.
• Cease border wall construction (if any): Same.
• Appoint progressive judges: Same. (See a pattern here?)
• Abortion / Reproductive Issues: Same. While most notable policy changes in this area happen at the state level, all the candidates are is likely to reverse rules the bar government funding to organizations that provides abortion services. For more on what that actually means: (click).
• Environmental Reforms / Climate Change Action: Here’s where we’d see some real differences. While all of the Democratic candidates are virtually guaranteed to reverse the Trump administration’s gutting of environmental protections, and take steps to battle climate change, Sanders has proposed declaring a national climate emergency, banning fracking, and banning fossil fuel exports. Whether these proposals materialize and to what degree (or would pass judicial scrutiny) is another matter, of course. (I’d see a fracking or export ban spark party mutiny in a lot of states, making the realistic chances pretty dicey). Nevertheless, significant executive action is on the table if the campaign rhetoric is taken as face value.

That list could be twice as long, but you get the picture. The bottom line is this: Whether you love him or hate him, stop freaking out about what a Sanders presidency might look like.